NWSL Snap: How will bottom clubs finish the season?

Note: Welcome to 'NWSL Snap' – A weekly brief whip-around of the weekend's action, talking points & nonsense from the U.S. league. Expect brief stories, quick updates, curious notes, and some standout statistics. It is included in the FREE Squad Depth subscription.

NWSL Matchday 21 Results:
KCC 3-0 Wash. Spirit |Bay 0-1 Orlando
Louisville 2-1 NCC | Houston 1-0 Seattle | Chicago 1-0 San Diego
Gotham 1-0 Utah | ACFC 2-2 Portland

Watch NWSL highlights here

Table (via FotMob):

The Snapshot

Yes, Gotham FC officially booked their ticket to the NWSL playoffs.

Yes, the KC Current got revenge in a statement win over the high-flying Catalan giants from the District of Columbia.

But really, this past weekend, it was the realities of the bottom four teams in the NWSL that caught my imagination. There will be plenty more time for the league's best to be in the snap-light.

Three of those four – Seattle Reign, San Diego Wave, and the Utah Royals – were defeated. With only the Houston Dash picking up a monumental win. To say this Dash win was monumental is somewhat of an understatement.

Houston had posted six straight defeats in the NWSL, all under caretaker head coach Ricky Clarke. Zoom out further, and it was a nine-match winless run dating back to when Fran Alonso was still taking Dash matches.

Relief and joy emanated from the staff and players.

"The performance out there, when I saw people getting stuck into tackles, it spoke
for itself," Houston defender Paige Nielsen said.

"We were pretty down after last week's loss [to the Washington Spirit]. Yeah, we didn't perform. Who cares about the score? We didn't perform well at all, and it was a tough game for us. But, for me personally, I used it as motivation. We can't forget that feeling."

The Dash really needed this win, and they snatched this opportunity against an imperfect Seattle side with both hands. It was a performance of resilience and drilled rigidity combined with exceptional technical moments.

Clarke made a tactical tweak to shift his team to an attacking 4-3-3 and a defensive 4-4-2. The move paired winger Michelle Alozie on the same side as full-back Avery Patterson to brilliant effect, and gave Andressa a more free role to break forward. Starting centrally, and then making diagonal runs to the flank.

"We had to adapt," Clarke said about the formation change. "When we watched Seattle, we knew that in possession, they were going to be expansive, and we fought higher up the field. In the wide areas, we could get to them. If you look at the goal, I think the goal originates from those areas.”

As much as this win was about focus, formations and fight, it was also about which team could produce a moment. The answer was Houston, and Yuki Nagasato. The sumptuous left-footed volley from the edge of the box is as clean of a hit you will see this season.

What are San Diego and Utah playing for?

Like Houston, San Diego and Utah's playoff hopes feel almost entirely over. All three clubs also do not have a permanent head coach currently in the building.

A personal rule of thumb is that as long as you are as many points off the playoffs as you have matches remaining, then you are in with a chance.

With five matches left, the Wave are six points behind, the Dash eight points, and the Royals 10 points.

It's not mathematically over just yet. But in the next couple weeks that could become a reality.

Here are these three teams run-ins:

Bearing in mind that San Diego has a depleted squad and W Concacaf Champions Cup matches to squeeze into their schedule – with a midweek away trip to Vancouver before then hosting Club America just three days before going on the road to Kansas City – the chances of the Wave winning at least three of these final matches feels slim.

For these three teams, the remainder of the season becomes about evaluating the squad. Re-establishing the standards, principles and patterns of play that represent the club. Perhaps also experimenting with players who haven't seen as many minutes during the first 21 matches of the season.

What about Seattle?

It's one thing to count out this trio from the playoffs but Seattle is complicated. Laura Harvey's team have picked up two wins since the Olympic break and shown some stronger performances.

Overall they were second best in Texas at the weekend, but at the same time, a couple of big chances for Jordyn Huitema went missing. If those go in? Then, maybe we're seeing a draw or a win against an improved Dash.

The talismanic Jess Fishlock has also been missing through injury, and the emerging Jordyn Bugg and Emeri Adames were away with the USA U-20 national team. If that trio comes back ready to excel, then maybe they push Louisville, Bay and Angel City for that final spot.

It also comes down to beating rivals. This upcoming weekend, the Reign hosts Bay FC at Lumen Field and if they win that it will give their playoff hopes a huge boost. I'm not counting out Harvey and company just yet.

Random stat to know

Shout out to the wonderful Eric and Evan at the Expected Own Goals podcast that dug up this nugget about Chicago's 1-0 win over San Diego.

What's also interesting about the Wave's irregular xG stats that ended in defeat is how few saves they forced from Chicago goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher. Just two of the 28 shots the Wave ended up on target and forced a save.

The post-shot xG on target was just 0.5, so about a 50/50 chance of scoring one goal – let alone getting close to the 2.26 xG number they posted in overall chances.

All this is to say, San Diego's finishing should absolutely come into question. They weren't able to maximize the positions they got into. Although, credit to Lorne Donaldson and his defenders for getting in crucial blocks and staying organized.

Donaldson and the Red Stars' absorbent structure, to drop deep with the lead, can feel overly cautionary. But another big three points and a playoff spot nearly locked up feels like a proof the formula works for this Chicago team.

It is now back-to-back weeks that we have seen the Red Stars score in the first half and close out a 1-0 win. Chicago's record in 2024 when it scores first is: 8W-1D-2L. Only once this season – a 2-1 away win to Bay – have Chicago come from behind to win a NWSL match.

NWSL Feels XI – Matchday 21

Sort of like a team of the week – mostly gut feels, and who brought the good vibes.